The World Bank has maintained its 2026 economic growth forecast for Ghana at 4.8 per cent, citing resilient economic activity, a rapid decline in inflation and substantial progress in debt restructuring. The Bank also highlighted a significant improvement in investor confidence.
In its October 2026 Africa Economic Update: Building AI-Readiness report, the Bank projects Ghana’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to rise slightly to 4.9 per cent in 2027 and 5.0 per cent in 2028. These projections follow growth rates of 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025.
Despite the anticipated slowdown in 2026 compared with the previous two years, the Bank maintains that Ghana’s economic recovery remains solid, underpinned by robust domestic demand and the expansion of digital services.
Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 6.6 per cent recorded during the corresponding period in 2025. According to the Bank, domestic demand was the main driver of growth, with investment increasing sharply by 53.0 per cent.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to economic expansion, growing by 8.0 per cent and accounting for nearly three-fifths of overall GDP growth. Activity in the information and communications technology sector also recorded strong growth of 30.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, industrial growth improved to 4.3 per cent from 2.4 per cent in the same period a year earlier, supported by increased oil and gas production. Growth in agriculture, however, slowed to 3.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent, largely due to a steep contraction in fishing activity.
Business confidence also showed signs of recovery. Ghana’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 50.8 in August from 49.2 in July. Since a reading above 50 indicates an expansion in private sector activity, the latest figure points to improving business conditions, supported by stronger customer demand and increased recruitment.
On inflation, the World Bank expects consumer price increases to decline significantly, from 22.9 per cent in 2024 and 14.2 per cent in 2025 to 8.0 per cent in 2026. Inflation is projected to remain around that level through 2028. Despite the favourable inflation outlook, the Bank of Ghana has maintained its monetary policy rate at 14 per cent, reflecting a cautious approach amid lingering uncertainties, particularly the risk of volatility in global energy prices.
Debt restructuring and investor confidence
The World Bank describes debt restructuring as a major milestone in Ghana’s recovery. Public debt decreased from 70.1 percent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 48.8 percent by the end of 2025, before rising slightly to an estimated 52.6 percent in 2026. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 2.2 percent of GDP in 2026. During the 2026 Article IV consultation, Ghana was reclassified to moderate risk for both its external and overall debt. The Bank considers this a significant improvement, noting that Ghana is the first country to exit the high-risk category since the 2022 debt distress wave.
The completion of the SADEREA debt exchange in July 2026, along with continued fiscal consolidation under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program, has boosted investor confidence. Ghana’s sovereign spreads fell sharply from approximately 2,828 basis points in 2023 to 239 basis points by August 2026. The Bank attributes this improvement to the completed restructuring, sustained fiscal adjustments, and the country’s shift to moderate risk. Narrower spreads generally indicate that investors require a lower extra return for lending to Ghana, which typically reduces the cost of borrowing.
